28. 06. 2025
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Betting Guide
What is Value Betting and How to Find It
If you're serious about sports betting, you've probably heard the term value betting. But what exactly does it mean? And more importantly, how can you identify a value bet? At Footen, our team of betting experts believes that understanding value betting is one of the most important steps toward long-term profitability. In this guide, we will explain how value betting works, why bookmakers sometimes offer incorrect odds, and how smart bettors can take advantage of it.
What is Value Betting?
Value betting refers to placing bets when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the actual probability of the outcome. This means you are betting on outcomes where the bookmaker has underestimated the chances.
Simple Example:
- - If a team has a 60% chance of winning (true odds of 1.67), but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00, this is a value bet.
- - Over time, consistently betting on value leads to long-term profit.
Why Value Betting Works
Bookmakers are good at setting odds, but they are not perfect. Odds are influenced by public opinion, team news, injuries, and even betting volume. Sometimes, especially in smaller markets or niche sports, bookmakers misprice events.
Additionally, odds can shift quickly based on incoming bets, and not every change reflects the real probability.
How to Calculate a Value Bet
The formula to determine value is straightforward:
Value = (Probability × Odds) – 1
If the result is greater than 0, the bet has value.
Example Calculation:
- - Bookmaker Odds: 2.50
- - Your estimated probability: 45% (0.45)
Value = (0.45 × 2.50) – 1 = 0.125 (or 12.5%)
This is a positive value bet.
Where to Find Value Bets
a) Research and Statistics:
Study team form, injuries, player stats, head-to-head records, and situational factors.
b) Comparing Odds:
Use odds comparison tools to spot where one bookmaker offers better odds than the rest.
c) Smaller Leagues and Niche Markets:
Bookmakers focus heavily on major leagues, meaning smaller competitions often present pricing errors.
d) Line Movement:
Watch for sudden odds changes and understand whether the movement is justified.
Common Mistakes in Value Betting
- - Overestimating your knowledge: Always rely on data, not gut feeling.
- - Ignoring bankroll management: Value betting is a long-term strategy. Without proper bankroll discipline, variance can wipe you out.
- - Chasing odds without understanding: Just because odds are higher doesn't mean they have value unless probability supports it.
Tools and Strategies for Value Betting
Recommended Tools:
- - Odds comparison platforms
- - Statistical databases
- - Betting models (Excel, Python, or third-party services)
Strategy Tips:
- - Focus on sports you deeply understand.
- - Bet consistently on positive value, not based on emotions.
- - Keep detailed records of every bet to analyze and refine your strategy.
- - Diversify your bets to minimize variance.
Conclusion – Turn Betting into an Investment
Value betting is not gambling based on luck — it's a calculated approach based on mathematics and probability. At Footen, we encourage bettors to move away from guessing and into the world of smart, data-driven betting.
If you consistently spot value and apply disciplined bankroll management, you increase your chances of being a profitable bettor over the long term.
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