11. 06. 2025
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Betting Guide
Underdog Betting: When It Pays to Go Against the Market
In the world of sports betting, the public often leans toward favorites. They’re safer, more predictable, and seem like the obvious choice. But smart bettors know that underdog betting—placing wagers on the perceived weaker team—can unlock significant value when approached correctly. At Footen, our team of betting experts breaks down when and why you should consider going against the grain.
Why the Market Favors Favorites
The average bettor tends to follow trends, hype, and recent performances. Sportsbooks understand this behavior and adjust the odds accordingly, which can lead to favorites being overvalued and underdogs being overlooked. This opens up windows of opportunity for bettors who know how to spot the inefficiencies.
Value Betting and the Underdog Edge
One of the core concepts in successful sports betting is value—backing a team when the odds offered are better than their true chances of winning. Underdogs often present better value because the public perception pushes their odds higher than warranted.
For example, if a team has a 35% chance of winning but the odds reflect only a 25% probability, betting on that underdog provides long-term expected value.
When It Makes Sense to Bet on Underdogs
Not every underdog is worth betting on. Here are some scenarios where it might be profitable:
- - Public Overreaction: A recent loss or injury may cause bettors to panic, but the actual impact may be minimal.
- - Rivalry Games: Emotions run high and underdogs tend to outperform expectations.
- - Mispriced Odds: When bookmakers miscalculate a team’s potential, sharp bettors can take advantage.
- - Home Advantage: Underdogs playing at home may outperform due to fan support and familiar conditions.
- - Strong Matchups: Even if a team is weaker overall, they might match up well tactically against the favorite.
Key Strategies for Betting on Underdogs
- - Research and Context: Go beyond the stats. Look at injuries, weather, motivation, and historical matchups.
- - Bet Selectively: Don’t bet every underdog. Focus on games where the data supports your contrarian pick.
- - Line Shopping: Use multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds. A small difference in odds can greatly impact long-term profitability.
- - Bankroll Management: Since underdogs win less frequently, manage your bankroll carefully to handle potential losing streaks.
Real Examples of Profitable Underdog Bets
Historical upsets—like Leicester City’s Premier League title win or unexpected March Madness victories—are reminders that anything can happen in sports. While these are extreme cases, they underscore the potential value of spotting the right underdog at the right time.
The Psychology Behind Betting Against the Market
Most people don’t like feeling uncomfortable, and betting against the consensus can be unnerving. However, if you're looking for value bets, stepping outside the crowd is often where the edge lies. It requires confidence, research, and a willingness to embrace variance.
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